Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
